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  • SoloFIRE Portfolio Update - 2026 Mar - $838,000

SoloFIRE Portfolio Update - 2026 Mar - $838,000

As war rages in the Middle East, the S&P 500 dropped 8% before seeing a modest recovery at the start of April. My portfolio was no exception: net asset value declined by 3.1%, or $26,945 in March, bringing the 2026 year-to-date performance down to -11.44%, compared with the 4% decline of the S&P.

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Figure 1. Stock Portfolio Value as of April 2nd 2026, ignoring margin and cash balance (Created with StockUnlock)

💡Monthly Highlight

As war rages in the Middle East, the S&P 500 dropped 8% before seeing a modest recovery at the start of April. My portfolio was no exception: net asset value declined by 3.1%, or $26,945 in March, bringing the 2026 year-to-date performance down to -11.44%, compared with the 4% decline of the S&P.

The steeper decline in my portfolio was mainly due to concentrated positions in software-related companies such as Constellation Software (CSU), Adobe (ADBE), Salesforce (CRM), and MSCI, which have experienced a heavy selloff not seen since 2022. Many top-quality names are now trading at historically low valuations that are hard to ignore.

CSU reported earnings in March, and the results did not disappoint: 2025 revenue grew 15% year-over-year, while free cash flow (FCF) increased 28% after adjusting for the IRGA liability. At about $2,440 per share, CSU is trading at more than 5% FCF yield, with its growth engine still intact, competent and honest management, and a disciplined capital allocation strategy. I continue to view this as a generational opportunity and added 9 more shares to my position, bringing my total ownership to 57 shares.

War and Stock Market Crash

Fears have been mounting in the market as the armed conflict in the Middle East intensifies. Crude oil prices have risen above $100 per barrel, and the VIX index has reached a new high not seen since the 2025 global tariff announcement. The best way to navigate this volatile market environment is to look at history, and fortunately, the conclusion is simple: the market has always moved higher after periods of conflicts.

As mentioned in my recent post, war is always bearish on money, as modern armed conflicts force governments to spend far more than they can possibly collect from their taxpayers while the war is being waged. With the US and most major developed economies already running deficits, having a reginal war will likely further devalue the currencies. In such an environment, it will be extremely unwise to sell stocks, hold cash and pay taxes on the meager interest income that has no hope of outpacing inflation.

That said, it is still important to ensure that the business we own will not be materially disrupted by any ongoing conflict. For example, a company may face trouble for the following reasons:

  • Having significant operations in the war zone.

  • Weak pricing power, limiting the ability to raise prices more than the rate of inflation.

  • Excessive debt. As a potential inflationary environment may drive up interest rate.

  • Heavy dependence on transportation or oil-based energy supply (though depending on duration, this could also create opportunities).

After reviewing all the companies in my portfolio, including their business models, balance sheets and economic moats, I am fairly certain that they are in strong positions to navigate this market really well. As a result, there will be no changes to my investment strategy going forward.

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