SoloFIRE Portfolio Update - 2026 Sept - $1.01M

Table of Contents

• 💡Monthly Highlight

• Updated Stock Analysis and Valuations

  • Adobe (ADBE)

• Detailed Portfolio Update

  • Option Holdings

  • Trades in TFSA Account

    • TFSA portfolio long-term performance

  • Trades in RRSP Account

  • Trades in Taxable Accounts

  • Summary

• Smith Maneuver Portfolio Updates

• Quick Links

💡Monthly Highlight

Net portfolio value increased about 4% in September, surpassing $1 million for the first time. Year-to-date performance stood at 3%, underperforming the S&P 500. While this is concerning at first glance, I believe this portfolio has a reasonable chance of catching up over time, given the superior quality of its underlying businesses compared with the average company in the index.

I have no control over short-term stock price movements, but what I can control is ensuring that every dollar I invest buys the greatest possible amount of per-share earnings and future growth potential. Despite the recent underperformance, the portfolio remains ahead of the S&P 500 by approximately 10 percentage points in cumulative total return since inception in 2023. (For context, I only began tracking my porfolio performance since February 10, 2023)

Looking back, the main reason for the underperformance in the past year has been my lack of exposure to the semiconductor and AI hardware industries, which have experienced a tremendous boom since the beginning of 2026. However, I remain cautious about the unpredictable nature of the semiconductor market and consider it outside my circle of competence due to my lack of professional experience in the industry.

I believe many high flying semiconductor stocks have already priced in substantial future growth from AI development and elevated hardware prices. It is unclear whether the current rate of growth is sustainable as companies continue to aggressively ramp up production to meet demand. Although AI infrastructure investment is unlikely to slow significantly anytime soon, there will eventually come a point when AI hardware sales decelerate or even decline as supply catches up with demand. It will be very difficult if not impossible to predict exactly when this inflection point will occur, making market timing very risky. The semiconductor related stock is now account for about 18% in the S&P 500 index. If I had held the index in my portfolio, this concentration would make me uncomfortable and start looking for ways to reduce my exposure.

Even without direct exposure to AI hardware stocks, I still expect this portfolio to benefit significantly from the AI buildout without taking on excessive risks. This is achieved by having concentrated investments in wide-moat hyperscalers (Amazon, Google and Meta) and Brookfield, which is helping finance and develop the infrastructure needed such as power generation and data centers.

Another concern among market participant in September is the Fed’s rate hike in the recent FOMC meeting, bringing the policy rate up 0.25% to 3.75%-4%. While higher interest rates can put pressure on stock valuations and increase financing costs, I am not concerned for two reasons: 1. This rate is still significantly lower than the long-term historical norms. 2. My portfolio companies generally have low debt burdens, or have ways to profit from a higher rate environment (such as Brookfield’s Wealth Solution and Oaktree division).

Ultimately, my investment strategy remains unchanged. Rather than chasing whichever sector has performed best recently, I will continue to focus on acquiring high-quality businesses at attractive valuations.